Archive for the ‘Equity Analysis’ Category

FAKE PEOPLE

January 26, 2017

There are people who are willing to crawl so low for some bucks that they become an embarrassment to the very concept of shame!

And I’m not referring necessarily to the “analyst” here.

At 5.43 $ per share Genworth Financial is a steal, yet stealing is too little a shame for someone.

GENWORTH FINANCIAL

December 1, 2016

A steal in the making!

KINDER MORGAN AND THE BLACK ART OF INNUENDO

December 3, 2015

I wish to try to point out some facts about Kinder Morgan, in response to a concentrated and prolonged attack unleashed on it by a mix of innuendo artists camouflaged as financial analysts. I’ll take as reference this article published on Seeking Alpha, following the last spear hit on the company by Moody’s, which changed its debt outlook to negative from stable. Nothing personal, it’s just a starting point.

What I have already stated in the comments to the article about Richard Kinder are facts and facts cannot be countered by any sort of innuendos. Neither they can be neutered by plain nonsense, like lamenting his cashing dividends from his ownership in a company he started from scratch and built to the present dominance in its sector of business. Nor they can be hindered by sly half-truth, like pointing out that he chaired Enron. Yes, he chaired it and his leave saw the demise of that company after five years under the guidance of the people who substituted him.
At purpose, what was the rating of Enron up to its bankrupt? What was the rating of Lehman Brothers? And Bear Stearn?

No hero-worshipping on my part, as you can see. I worship only God (and therefore the truth). I hope there’s not a worshipping of something else on the other side.

Speaking of nonsense, could someone please be so kind to point out some FACTS that would show Richard Kinder interests not aligned with the rest of the shareholders in the company he manages?
I have stated mine, namely: no compensation, no options, bonus and all kind of legalized ways to milk a public company by its managers, no political meddling, all of his wealth concentrated pretty much in his company, regular buying at market prices of further ownership in the company, a stellar past performance, a perfect match of all forecasts but one.
In response, I have heard only innuendos, nonsense and cross-references to rating agencies and hit pieces, and a multiplication of articles published by people clearly subtracted to land plowing.

It should be clear to anyone with half a brain that rating agencies (yes, all of them) are just gate-keepers and policemen to control the financial landscape for those selected fews “more-equal-than-anyone-else”, to make sure that nobody can access capital at fair price without their consent and therefore to make all participants to behave.
Time and again, FACTS have proven beyond any reasonable doubt that they are one of the most dangerous factor of instability for the financial system.
They can be compared to fire inspectors who fill the house they are inspecting with all sort of flammable materials, make sure that there are plenty of things able to give a spark nearby and finally pour very solemnly gasoline on the first timid flames.
I hope I will be excused if I don’t give a damn about their regurgitations!

Yet the author, in a supreme characterization of innuendo, spills fears of Kinder Morgan going bust (no less!) following the last from Moody’s.
I beg pardon, but exactly….. HOW?

We have a company with vital assets in a most sensitive economic field (it transports one third of all natural gas moved in the US, among other things), which is able to earn yearly 4.8 billions $ in free cash flow, that is after interest expense and maintenance capex. How is it going bust? Inquiring minds wish to know…..

Is it going to be shut out of capital markets, if the rating agencies keeps on barking? I would beg to differ, but anyway…. let’s be it! A very quick look at the company’s website would make you know that its policy is to give all the free cash it produces back to shareholders, leaving the decision about expansion to the investors. It means a very simple thing: Kinder Morgan needs access to capital market only to expand its business or make new acquisitions. Now, if investors are not willing or too demanding, the company will just keep on cashing around 5 billions every year until they change their mind. That’s not exactly the definition of “going bust” last time I checked the dictionary.

In fact, I could even make a case for that free cash flow to go slightly higher without expanding assets, but it would be redundant.
Yes, I know…. oil is going to 20$, so says Goldman Sachs. I know also that in July 2008, with oil at 150$, they said it was going to 200$.

Of course, there is debt which must be repaid, but also here facts are missing. How much debt comes due in the next few years? Deafening silence!

Well, there are maturities for 1.6 billions next year and 3 billions in 2017. On the other side, there are 10 billions of free cash flow and 3.5 billions of available revolver borrowing, plus capital markets closed only in the wild dreams of innuendo artists. If they go with equity issue reserved exclusively to existing shareholders, I think they could even not decrease the dividend.
In any case, a couple of billions of dollars can be raised without excessive hindrance in two years time, even paying a few basis points more.

No growth? Well, sign me in for life at 9% yield!
That will not be the case, however. The financial banners will change direction in a short while, after the current raids are over.
There is an illogical thought habit in economic reasoning today which sees the finance as a branch of economy, a derivative one furthermore. That is, the belief that financial outcome depends on the economic choice made or undergone by the economic agent, that what happens in the financial markets is the direct consequence of underlying economic interactions. Nothing can be further from the truth!
It does not follow, it leads economic upheaval. It’s designed above all to cause fictive perceptions as a mean to impose alien choices and agenda on the economic agents targeted, or to force them out of the arena, with the juicy corollary to create for a selected fews enormous profits exploiting the wild fluctuation of “prices”.
In short, post-modern finance is the ultimate price fixing scheme!

It seems that they will be successful in forcing Kinder to do what they want (that is, to lose completely its credibility),  after pocketing juicy profit on the skin of little ones and retirees, selling what they do not own.

I hope that company management does not bow to this despicable blackmail. Stay the course with the dividend increase, pay it in shares with rates of conversion at the average price of the week BEFORE DECLARATION (dilutive but to excusive benefit of shareholders, with fractions paid in cash) and use cash flow to fund growth and reduce leverage! Or use a mix, according to necessity, in relation to financing availability at satisfying rates. Even just announcing it would make them retreat. And after listen to the gnashing of teeth…..

THE (FINANCIAL) MARKET EFFICIENCY

September 10, 2013

SPLUNK Inc                    June 2012      December 2012    June 2013

Margine Operativo Lordo -10.95 mln $   -17.24 mln $   -34.78 mln $

Price per share                   28.1 $                                        59.4 $

SALESFORCE Inc

Margine Operativo Lordo 116.24 mln $    83.58 mln $    72.43 mln $

Price per share                   34.56 $                                     49.63 $

EXELON Corp

Margine Operativo Lordo    6.8 mld $        7.25 mld $     7.45 mld $

Price per share                   37.6 $                                       30.5 $

NUSTAR ENERGY LP

Margine Operativo Lordo 402.6 mln $     383.6 mln $   419.3 mln $

Price per share                   53.9 $                                    39.9 $

THE MARKET EFFICIENCY

August 24, 2012

In the last six months, CRM had 1,427 mln $ in sales, 294.14 mln in cash earnings from operations (before changes in the working capital) and 78.13 mln in capital expenditures.

In the same period, DELL had 28,905 mln $ in sales, 2,313 mln in cash earnings from operations (before changes in working capital) and 262 mln in capital expenditures.

Yet, the market value the CRM enterprise 4 bln $ more than DELL!
47 times the annualized free cash flow against 4!!!

I guess it’s because of that famous market efficiency.

Only government is more efficient than modern financial market in misallocating capital.

P.S. – I did forget….

Of those 294 mln $ CRM cash earnings from operations, 166 mln came from options exercise.
Go figure!

SCUSATE

June 4, 2012

Ma non vi sembra un tantino esagerato?

ON THE LATEST RIM BUSINESS UPDATE

May 30, 2012

On the positive side, we expect to further increase our cash position in Q1 from the approximately $2.1 billion we had at the end of fiscal 2012.” ======================

So, the operating loss looks to be due to some cashless write down or write off or provision, as the company will be free cash flow positive (i.e. operating cash flow huge enough to cover completely big capital expenditures and then more). All of that in a dismal quarter.

Maybe the media and financial whores should devote some minutes thinking of this, before uttering their usual crap.

I’d note also that their subscribers base did actually increase, but I fear to shock all the simple souls who believe US to be the only place on Earth.

BUSINESSMEN AND FLAMING IDIOTS

March 30, 2012

I’ve just bought a business. Well, a part of it, as I don’t have that much money (I would like to).

This business (RIMM) has had some problems lately, with declining sales amid a fierce and smart competition and not enough focused management. Anyway, I’m buying it on the cheap. Boys, it is REALLY cheap!

I’m paying an Enterprise Value of little more than 5 billions $, getting 3.12 billions $ of cash earnings from operations. Yes, that’s right…. two years and the cash I’m paying will be back. True, this year the cash earnings are 1.3 billions $ less than past year, but past year I’d have paid six times more for the Enterprise Value.

At the same time, I’m selling another business (LNKD) to some other people. These people are paying me an Enterprise Value of 10 billions $, getting 86 mln $ of cash earnings from operations. So, their cash will be back in 115-120 years.

Probably they are Elves, not mortal Men (even if I did never meet Elves with such a bad attitude to math).

What? RIMM will be history in two years, while LNKD owns the future?

Of course, baby, of course….. this time is different, isn’t it?

OPENTABLE – IT’S TIME TO SPEAK OUT

March 30, 2011

Everyone buying shares of this company, whose business is … restorant reservation (go figure!), at 25x Sales, 92x EBITDA and 167x Free Cash Flow is a FLAMING IDIOT !!!

Ugh!

ANOTHER RISK-FREE TRADE

November 26, 2010

Provided that you hedge the currency exposure, how much risk you take shorting a ten years bond which yields 1%?