Archive for September, 2008

MODEL PORTFOLIOS – September 2008

September 28, 2008

Simpliciter 68.64 $ -9.87%(monthly return)
base 75 $ – 4 Oct 2007 -8.48%% (since inception return)
1° gen 2008 – 72.04 $ -4.72% (ytd return)

Closed positions ytd: VPHM +50.67% IVAC -7.1% MVL +33.32% CDNS -34.59% UNTD +16.2% HAS +42.03%

 €uroIncome 24.55 € -5.21%(monthly return)
base 25 € – 4 Aug 2008 -1.8% (since inception return)

Julians 28.73 $ +7.52%(monthly return)
base 25 $ – 21 Aug 2008 +14.92% (since inception return)

closed positions: MBI +60.44% RF +79.75%

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TOTAL INVESTED CAPITAL – September 2008

September 28, 2008

Maedhros Currency Index 100.82 -4.57%(monthly return)
40% standard allocation
base 100 – 19 nov 2007 +0.82% (since inception return)
1° gen 2008 – 103,04 -2.15% (ytd return)

closed positions ytd: SDS +15,61% FXY +2,7% EVF -1,55% JGT -0,17% FXE +5.96% FXF +2.91% SKF -16.87%

Maedhros P&C Insurance Index 93.89 +2.18%(monthly return)
25% standard allocation
base 100 – 4 dic 2007 -6.11% (since inception return)
1° gen 2008 – 99,3 -5.45% (ytd return)

closed positions ytd: AFG +2,43% HUM +6.18%

Maedhros Distressed Value 25 Index 95.07 -2.93%(monthly return)
20% standard allocation
base 100 – 8 gen 2008 -4.93% (ytd and since inception return)

closed position ytd: TMA +16,47% NVR +27,68% EDS +49,23% EK -5,1% IMN +22,93% GGC -0.3% NTZ +41.8%

Maedhros Banking Index 115.12 +14.35%(monthly return)
10% standard allocation
base 100 – 8 gen 2008 +15.12% (ytd and since inception return)

closed position ytd: MCBC +18,28% – CRBC -2,99% CHFC +6,04% MBWM -42,83% PRK +8,28% IBCP -21,44% LYG 5.44%

Maedhros Top of the Shorts Index 119.92 +12.18%(monthly return)
5% standard allocation
base 100 – 9 gen 2008 +19.92% (ytd and since inception return)

closed position ytd: ALNY +26,55% – AMZN +6,36% DSL +64,48% FAST +2,81% PNC +8,67%

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Total Invested Capital 501.61 +0.17%(monthly return)
base 500 – 19 nov 2007 +0.32% (since inception return)
1° gen 2008 – 505,2 -0.71% (ytd return)

Benchmarks
S&P 500 -17.37% (ytd return)

Longleaf Partners Fund -20.78% (ytd return)
Sequoia Fund -7.94% (ytd return)
Third Avenue Value Fund -24.16% (ytd return)

(in US dollars, dividends & broker’s fees included, taxes not included)

THE RATING CLOWNS

September 23, 2008

What is really disturbing of the current financial crisis is the substantial impunity surrounding the main culprits.

Apart from politics (they are irresponsibles by definition), you can confidently put the blame of the current financial chaos on inept, greedy and corrupt banks managers, and the rating agencies.

As penalty the first ones got liquidations that ordinary people should work for centuries to get, while the second ones keep on belching their useless and harmful analysis, adding fuel to the fire they roused.

I’d strongly urge Paulson et al to insert a few lines in the bailout package they’re working on, to put an end on their unbearable legal monopoly to utter financial nonsense; they are one of the main source of market instability.

Look at the Lehman rating when it collapsed!

Protected: ALERT – INSURANCE INDEX

September 22, 2008

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Protected: ALERT – GENERAL

September 22, 2008

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GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

September 22, 2008

The US government’s intervention in the financial markets last week has been so enormous that it contains a lot of potential implications. To understand them fully, we need to wait for the dust to lay down, keeping an eye on the markets behaviour in the next weeks and (possibly) months.

If I was forced to a quick take, I’d dare to conclude that there is a strong chance that the US are on their way to replicate the Japan performance after their bubble burst almost twenty years ago, without however the support of a chronical trade surplus and a huge pool of savings. Of course, there are fundamental differences between the two countries, above all in relation to the global shadow of the American (not only) financial power and under the demographic and territorial side, so I’m not quite sure about that outcome.

In any case, I think the last events support some of my long standing theories:

a) it’s not possible for a global fiat monetary system to blow up for endogenous reasons (i.e. the never ending expansion of money/debt aggregates.

b) the low yields on the governments bond is a sign of inflation, not deflation.

c) the US dollar is the less desirable currency to own in this period.

d) the real Money, gold and silver, the goods that the governments were able to put permanently out of the payments system thirty-seven years ago (for the first time in the mankind history), will adjust its price  much, much higher than current readings. Advices here are always the same: stay away from the Comex! prefer always the real stuff (CEF is a good surrogate)! pick very carefully precious metals shares (choose GDX if you can’t do that)!

Changes I’m going to make in our model portfolios will follow soon.

Protected: ALERT – CURRENCY AND BANKING INDEXES

September 19, 2008

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Protected: ALERT – SIMPLICITER PORTFOLIO

September 11, 2008

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Protected: ALERT – JULIANS PORTFOLIO

September 11, 2008

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Protected: ALERT – DISTRESSED VALUE 25 INDEX

September 11, 2008

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